the bird on fire

By Political Analyst Indy Behr

Note: Yesterday morning, Senator Feinstein announced she would not run for reelection in 2024. This article was completed prior to this announcement. The announcement proves, “Indy was right.”

California’s Class 1 Senate seat is up for reelection in 2024, and this race is already getting interesting. This seat is currently held by Dianne Feinstein, and she has held it since 1992. She is now 89 years old and still active in the Senate. Typically, new candidates hold off on making announcements regarding candidacy until incumbents state their intentions on filling again their seats. 

Then, just a few weeks ago, Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA47), who represents parts of the Los Angeles suburbs including Irvine and Newport Beach, announced her candidacy for the seat. NBC news reporter Alex Seitz-Wald stated that an ally of Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA30), who represents an urban Los Angeles district, told him that the timing of Porter’s announcement–amid major floods across California–indicated Porter was “playing politics.” Just a few weeks later, however, Schiff himself jumped into the race, even as Feinstein refused to state what her plans are.

Many have been concerned about Feinstein’s cognitive health for nearly a year (NPR.org). In October, her home city newspaper, the San Francisco Chronicle, reported that colleagues of Feinstein believe that she “is now mentally unfit to serve.” They stated that an unnamed Democratic member of Congress from California, who had known Feinstein for 15 years, had to reintroduce himself to Feinstein multiple times during a conversation (sfchronicle.com). The Chronicle stated that the colleagues then began discussing ways to get Feinstein to retire before her term ends. This is why many are so surprised that Feinstein, who would be 97 at the end of an additional six-year term, is still not saying she will retire.

While two prominent candidates are in this race already–Porter and Schiff, it is likely that more will join them in the coming weeks. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA12), who represents the city of Oakland and several smaller surrounding cities, was reported as having told members of the Congressional Black Caucus, which she chairs, that she was planning to run for Feinstein’s seat. Lee is 76, and though she is 13 years younger than Feinstein, questions about her age have been raised. The San Francisco Chronicle stated that a source close to Lee told them she would plan to be in the Senate for just one term, and their message to donors now is that she would be a “trailblazer for six years.” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA17) said in January that he too was exploring a run for the Senate seat. Khanna represents the Silicon Valley area. 

Of the two candidates currently in the race, there is a stark difference. Porter is a noted progressive and is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, as are roughly half of Congressional Democrats. Schiff is somewhat more moderate in his policies and is not a member of the Progressive Caucus. While Porter’s announcement video proposed drastic policy changes when it comes to healthcare or taxes, Schiff focused on his record opposing Trump in the House as a member of the House Intelligence Committee and his concern over MAGA Republicans posing a threat to democracy. Barbara Lee is a former co-chair of the Progressive Caucus, and Khanna is  a member. Lee was the only member of the House to oppose a bill allowing the US to invade those believed to be responsible for 9/11. Khanna and Porter are two of only six House members who do not take any money from corporate Political Action Committees.

This early in a race, fundraising is a good metric to see where each candidate stands. Though Porter did beat Schiff in terms of fundraising on their respective days of announcement, Schiff already had over $20M in his campaign account, whereas Porter had $7.7M. Schiff amassed a lot of this money during the Trump-Russia investigation, which made him more prominent as a national figure, and he has not had to spend much money campaigning as he is in a safe Los Angeles district. Porter lives in a much more conservative district and won reelection by less than 1% in 2022. Lee has just $54K to her name, as she is both in a safe district and lacks name recognition, for now. Feinstein has nearly $10M currently, yet from October to December 2022, she reported to the Federal Election Commission that she had raised just $558.91. The only poll we have seen so far is a head-to-head between Porter and Schiff, and though Porter is leading by 9%, 37% of California voters remain undecided. In terms of endorsements from members of Congress, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is Porter’s only endorser, whereas Schiff is already the favored candidate of most of the Democratic House delegation for California, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA11) (sfchronicle.com).

I went to watch Schiff get interviewed live at the Rancho Mirage Writers’ Festival just last week. He was asked about whether he thinks Feinstein will run and in the event she runs, whether he’ll position himself as a challenger or drop out. I was planning to ask him this very question. I should have expected that he would give a politician’s answer. He explained that he had let Feinstein know he was planning to run and said that he thought “Feinstein would make the decision she thinks is best for California.” When pressed on whether he would run in this hypothetical scenario, he acknowledged that the audience would be “unsatisfied” with his answer and essentially repeated what he had just said.

All in all, even a year and a half before the election itself, I think this race is already turning out to be quite interesting. In the coming weeks, we should see at least one candidate join the race, and likely by the Spring, Feinstein will state what her intentions are. If I had to guess, I don’t think she’s running, especially based on her raising essentially no money over the last few months. I am looking forward to seeing more endorsements, polling and fundraising reports in the coming weeks.